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Bayesian Testing of Trading Ideas
Conviction should follow confirmation. The only confirmation I see discussed around trading on Twitter are additional untested signals. My goal is to…
Aug 7, 2021
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Bayesian Testing of Trading Ideas
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The Wicked Problem of Trading
Or, why I've been gone for a year
Jun 26
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Matt
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The Wicked Problem of Trading
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The Profits of Trading is in Dopamine, not Dollars
Pithy wisdom is for managing your "high", not your profit
Jul 24, 2022
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Matt
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The Profits of Trading is in Dopamine, not Dollars
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False Precision in Modelling
When I was younger I believed in a kind of physical determinism. I thought that if you knew exactly where everything was and exactly how fast it was…
Jul 3, 2022
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confirmsignal
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False Precision in Modelling
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Position Sizing Based on Conviction or Volatility
I’ve developed an approach for position sizing that allows for conviction-adjusted sizing based on a quantitative measure of statistical significance. I…
Dec 26, 2021
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Position Sizing Based on Conviction or Volatility
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Checking for Seasonality in the S&P 500
Is "Sell in May and Go Away" Alpha?
Oct 2, 2021
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Checking for Seasonality in the S&P 500
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Testing SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX Indices
I previously looked at @SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX indices to see if they had any casual impact on future returns in the S&P 500 index but my an…
Sep 25, 2021
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Testing SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX Indices
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Don't Do Statistics Before Causality
If you don't put causality into your models, you won't get it out of them
Sep 19, 2021
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Don't Do Statistics Before Causality
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Bayesian Statistical Testing of Trading Hypothesis
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Bayesian Statistical Testing of Trading Hypothesis
By Matt
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