Confirm Signal Newsletter | Substack

Conviction should follow confirmation. The only confirmation I see discussed around trading on Twitter are additional untested signals. My goal is to change that, at least a little bit. My goal is to promote scientific skepticism in the trading world. I apply Bayesian hypothesis…

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Pithy wisdom is for managing your "high", not your profit

Jul 24

When I was younger I believed in a kind of physical determinism. I thought that if you knew exactly where everything was and exactly how fast it was…

Jul 3

I’ve developed an approach for position sizing that allows for conviction-adjusted sizing based on a quantitative measure of statistical significance. I…

Dec 26, 2021

Is "Sell in May and Go Away" Alpha?

Oct 2, 2021

Testing SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX Indices I previously looked at @SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX indices to see if they had any casual impact on future returns in the S&P 500 index but my an…

Sep 25, 2021

If you don't put causality into your models, you won't get it out of them

Sep 19, 2021

A spotlight on a replacement for standard deviation and the existential value of science

Aug 29, 2021

Confirm Signal Newsletter

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