Conviction should follow confirmation. The only confirmation I see discussed around trading on Twitter are additional untested signals. My goal is to change that, at least a little bit. My goal is to promote scientific skepticism in the trading world. I apply Bayesian hypothesis testing to quantify the uncertainty around return distributions following so-called signals. If the signals have edge, the return distributions will show edge.
Bayesian Testing of Trading Ideas
Bayesian Testing of Trading Ideas
Bayesian Testing of Trading Ideas
Conviction should follow confirmation. The only confirmation I see discussed around trading on Twitter are additional untested signals. My goal is to change that, at least a little bit. My goal is to promote scientific skepticism in the trading world. I apply Bayesian hypothesis testing to quantify the uncertainty around return distributions following so-called signals. If the signals have edge, the return distributions will show edge.