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The Wicked Problem of Trading
Or, why I've been gone for a year
 • 
Matt
1
July 2022
The Profits of Trading is in Dopamine, not Dollars
Pithy wisdom is for managing your "high", not your profit
 • 
Matt
1
False Precision in Modelling
When I was younger I believed in a kind of physical determinism. I thought that if you knew exactly where everything was and exactly how fast it was…
 • 
confirmsignal
2
December 2021
October 2021
Checking for Seasonality in the S&P 500
Is "Sell in May and Go Away" Alpha?
September 2021
Testing SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX Indices
I previously looked at @SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX indices to see if they had any casual impact on future returns in the S&P 500 index but my an…
5
Don't Do Statistics Before Causality
If you don't put causality into your models, you won't get it out of them
August 2021
Mean Absolute Deviation and MAD About Shaming Science
A spotlight on a replacement for standard deviation and the existential value of science
Taking the Temperature of Dr. Copper
Evaluating the use of the metal as a leading market indicator
My Analysis Approach and What Motivated It
How and why I attempt to separate signal from noise
Bayesian Testing of Trading Ideas
Conviction should follow confirmation. The only confirmation I see discussed around trading on Twitter are additional untested signals. My goal is to…
July 2021
False Positive Errors and Introduced Auto-correlation
In my previous report I messed up my result by introducing an auto-correlation false positive into my results. I've corrected my infrastructure to…
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