confirm signal? sir, this is a casino

confirm signal? sir, this is a casino

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Testing SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX Indices
I previously looked at @SqueezeMetrics GEX and DIX indices to see if they had any casual impact on future returns in the S&P 500 index but my an…
5
Position Sizing Based on Conviction or Volatility
I’ve developed an approach for position sizing that allows for conviction-adjusted sizing based on a quantitative measure of statistical significance.
Reviewing My Own Lack of Skepticism
Good tools don't do much good if you use them wrong
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Matt
Checking for Seasonality in the S&P 500
Is "Sell in May and Go Away" Alpha?
False Precision in Modelling
When I was younger I believed in a kind of physical determinism.
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confirmsignal
2
The Wicked Problem of Trading
Or, why I've been gone for a year
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Matt
2
My Analysis Approach and What Motivated It
How and why I attempt to separate signal from noise
The Profits of Trading is in Dopamine, not Dollars
Pithy wisdom is for managing your "high", not your profit
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Matt
1
Primer on Conditional Probability
When testing RSI I used conditional probability as my statistical tool, thinking that keeping it to high school level statistics would make the analysis…
Mean Absolute Deviation and MAD About Shaming Science
A spotlight on a replacement for standard deviation and the existential value of science
Don't Do Statistics Before Causality
If you don't put causality into your models, you won't get it out of them
Taking the Temperature of Dr. Copper
Evaluating the use of the metal as a leading market indicator
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